NOAA Miami-South Florida Rainy Season 2025 Outlook: Slightly Wetter, Likely Warmer

The precipitation outlook has a low to medium level of confidence due to weak and/or mixed signals from the different factors. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern is currently in a neutral phase, therefore the larger-scale pattern may not have much of a influence on local wet season precipitation patterns. Analogs (past years with similar pre-season conditions) are suggesting above normal precipitation, while a consensus of long-range models is indicating the possibility of drier than normal precipitation. Adding to the lower confidence is the fact that wet season precipitation outlooks can be strongly influenced by any tropical systems affecting Florida, which have virtually no local predictability more than 7-10 days in time.

Also, the late start to this year’s rainy season pattern caused by late dry season dryness lingering well into May is leading to drought conditions which will likely persist into June across parts of South Florida. This may delay the typical recovery of groundwater levels across the region during late May and June.

The flood risk for South Florida is average. In any rainy season, even on an ordinary summer day, showers and thunderstorms during the rainy season have the potential to produce flooding. Therefore, the flood risk is average (8-10 significant events per rainy season).

The temperature outlook has a medium to high level of confidence due to greater consistency between long-range model forecasts, warmer than normal ocean temperatures, and summer temperature trends over the past 10 to 20 years. The likely range of temperatures is in the 1-degree F range per month above the 30-year normal.